The year-to-year turnover of postseason clubs in the NFL shows how strong parity has become across the league. Typically, over the past decade, five or six new teams per season make the playoffs after missing out the year prior.

Let's take a look at six NFL teams that made the post-season last year, but look likely to be on the wrong side of the post-season line after the 2023-24 campaign. Will these teams fall short of a playoff berth after earning a shot at the Super Bowl last year?

6 Los Angeles Chargers

After a relatively disappointing 10-7 regular season in which the Chargers outscored their opponents by an average of 6.9 points per victory, L.A.'s AFC squad experienced one of their most embarrassing losses in franchise history.

The Chargers built an impressive 27-0 lead with just under a minute remaining in the first half of their wild card game with Jacksonville. Instead of cruising to victory, the Chargers imploded on offense, defense, and special teams. The result? Dropping the wild card game by one point and losing the match by a score of 31-30 to the feisty Jaguars.

This was a sour end to what many believed was the Charger's year to break out and challenge the Chiefs for the AFC West crown, and push the Chiefs, Bills, and Bengals for the AFC title. The Chargers' quiet offseason, combined with their knack for playing below expectations, can be interpreted in two ways: L.A. is staying the course to aim for a better result this year, or admitting that major changes to the roster will lead to the same heartbreak as last year.

Believing in this squad is a fool's errand. Expect the Chargers to miss the playoffs for the fourth time in their last five campaigns. A lack of roster improvements and one of the toughest schedules in the NFL don't bode well for this Hollywood team.

Read more: NFL: Ranking all 32 starting quarterbacks from 'Elite' to 'Delete'

5 Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings' record in one-score games last season was 11-0, an unfathomably difficult achievement to replicate. A couple of those were crazy, miraculous, comeback wins against the Bills and the Colts. Even taking into account Minnesota's likely decline in tight games, improvements to their division rivals, especially the Lions and the Bears, places additional strain on a Vikings' schedule that's already one of the most difficult in 2023.

Adding USC standout Jordan Addison to the list of Kirk Cousins' weapons is a win, but the losses of veterans Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen leave some holes in the depth chart, as well as in the locker room. Starting the season with three Super Bowl contenders in the first two months, the Eagles, Chiefs and 49ers, will be an immediate test that shows Vikings fans that their team is unlikely to make the post-season this year, despite 13 wins last year.

4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield may be the steepest drop-offs in QB play year-over-year that we've ever seen in the NFL. That's no slight to the former Heisman Trophy winner. But for a team that became just the fourth in league history to win its division with a losing record, going from the GOAT to a player who has struggled to earn playing time is surely a major cause for concern.

The NFC South has long been known as the most up-in-the-air division in the NFL, excluding Brady's brief tenure in Tampa. This promises to be another uncertain year for the division, with the Saints, Panthers, and Falcons all improving their rosters through free agency and the draft.

A relatively successful offseason in terms of free agents saw the team re-sign Jamel Dean and Lavonte David, but that's not going to cover the loss of Brady. Additionally, the Bucs' schedule won't be easy, with matchups against the Eagles, Lions, Bills, 49ers, and Jaguars.

3 New York Giants

A big goal for the Giants this offseason was to improve the arsenal of weapons available to QB Daniel Jones, who had already shown significant signs of improvement under Brian Daboll after just one year.

New York added Pro Bowl tight end Darren Waller. They also added the speedy Parris Campbell and then drafted the even speedier Jalin Hyatt. Those players should improve the Giants offense, so why will the Giants miss out on the NFC playoff picture after such a strong initial year under the Bills' former offensive coordinator?

New York's 2022 season featured eight one-score wins and just two wins in their final nine games, a sign of regressing to the mean. The Giants also had only 16 team turnovers after having a league-high 30 the season before, a trend that's unlikely to continue this year. The NFC will be more competitive, and the NFC East is one of the toughest divisions in the entire league. Expect the Giants to fall short of the playoffs.

2 Miami Dolphins

Things seem to be pointing up for the Dolphins coming off their first playoff berth since 2016. They even pushed the heavily-favored Bills to the limit in their wild card matchup. Add the splashy offseason additions of Jalen Ramsey, DeShon Elliott, and David Long, and there's no reason to think Miami's upward trajectory won't continue.

However, Miami faces the third-toughest schedule in the NFL, and Tua Tagovailoa has significant injury concerns due to multiple concussions. They're stuck in a division with two Super Bowl contenders, the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets. Similar to the Giants, Miami has a roster with a high ceiling, but it appears more likely that the star-laden South Beach club will struggle to make the playoffs in an extremely difficult division.

Betting against Mike McDaniels and Tyreek Hill may not be the best idea, but a tough schedule in October and November could end their season well before Thanksgiving. Losing to the Bills, Eagles, Chiefs, and Jets could be the determining factor in a playoff appearance.

Read more: New England Patriots: Four undeniable reasons they will win AFC East this season

1 Buffalo Bills

Hear me out. Buffalo's schedule features the Jets twice, the Dolphins twice, the Chiefs, the Bengals, the Eagles, the Cowboys, the Jaguars, and the Chargers. Von Miller, their top pass rusher, will miss the first month of the regular season. There also appears to be simmering tension between Josh Allen and WR1 Stefon Diggs.

The Bills 2022-23 playoff run featured an extremely narrow win over a Skylar Thompson-led Dolphins, and an ugly 27-10 home loss to Cincinnati. Buffalo also carries the weight of being Super Bowl favorites for the fourth consecutive season. Clearly, things would have to go wrong for one of the best rosters to fall out of the playoffs, but cracks in the Bills armor started showing up last year, and any slip-ups early in the season could prevent Buffalo from losing their fifth appearance at the Super Bowl.

All statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference and all contract information courtesy of Spotrac unless stated otherwise.