Highlights

  • The Patriots have improved their running back depth with the addition of Ezekiel Elliott
  • With Bill Belichick as head coach, the Patriots always have a shot at winning the AFC East
  • The Patriots' defense was a strong point in 2022, ranking above average in points allowed, total yards given up, and sack rate

The days of the New England Patriots as a powerhouse are over. Before, the Patriots being unofficially deemed AFC East champions even before a season started was an annual tradition. That's no longer the case. However, Patriots fans can still dream of regaining their glory in the division. Here are four reasons why.

Team stats are culled from Football Outsiders and Team Rankings. Individual stats are from Pro Football Reference.

4 The backfield just got more interesting

Elliott is no longer the running back he once was during his peak years with the Dallas Cowboys. Otherwise, the Cowboys wouldn't have easily let him go this offseason. That being said, there's some juice left in the legs of the four-time 1,000-yard rusher. There was not a glaring need for the Patriots in their running back depth prior to signing Elliott. Rhamondre Stevenson is the clear-cut RB1. But with Elliott, the Patriots boost their depth and add much better insurance behind Stevenson. In his last season with the Cowboys, Elliott rushed for 876 yards and 12 touchdowns on 231 carries. He's probably not going to get as much of a load in New England, which should keep him fresh during the latter (and perhaps more crucial) stages of the season.

3 Bill Belichick is a master

Tom Brady is long gone in Foxborough but Patriots fans still trust their team to win games largely because of the man everyone in New England listens to -- Bill Belichick. Say what you want about the Patriots but the bottom line about them is that they have an all-time great as head coach. As long as the Patriots have Belichick, they will always have a shot at succeeding in a season or, at the very least, being competitive. Belichick is easily the most accomplished of all the head coaches today in the league. No one can hold a candle to him, especially in the AFC East when it comes to winning and credentials.

The Buffalo Bills have Sean McDermott, the New York Jets have Robert Saleh, and the Miami Dolphins have Mike McDaniel. None of them have achieved even just a meaningful fraction of what Belichick has with the Patriots. It is also possible that Belichick is starting to realize that the end of his time in New England is nearing, and that's a tremendous source of motivation to win for someone like the 71-year-old.

The Patriots have had zero wins in the playoffs over the course of the past four seasons. That's not really a long time for most other franchises, but New England is not like most other franchises. It's used to winning. It's spoiled by success. Belichick knows it, and it just seems like a perfect time for him and the Patriots to remind everyone of that.

2 The other Bill

There's another Bill in the think tank of the Patriots this season and it's no other than Bill O'Brien. He's not a new face for NFL fans, as he used to be the head coach of the Houston Texans. Patriots fans are familiar with him as he served the team in different capacities, particularly on offense, during the 2000s. Now, after a short stint in college with the Alabama Crimson Tide, O'Brien is back to help New England as the team's offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach. Play-calling duties in 2022 for the Pats were mostly the job of Matt Patricia. With O'Brien, the Patriots are getting an upgrade.

There's no hiding the fact that the Patriots' attack was lackluster in 2022. Mac Jones regressed in his second year in the league. After passing for over 3,800 yards and 22 touchdowns with 13 to go along with a 50.9 quarterback rating, Jones took a step back in 2021, recording only 2,997 passing yards and 14 touchdowns against 11 interceptions while posting a 36.2 QBR.

O'Brien is not going to turn New England's offense into a powerhouse overnight, and it might not even be remotely part of the conversation as among the best this coming season. But if O'Brien makes the Patriots' offense improve significantly compared to last season on third downs and in the red zone, that could be enough for New England to shock the division. Remember, the Patriots ranked just 26th a season ago in total yards per game (314.6) and 16th in points per outing (21.4). They were also 27th in third-down conversion (34.88%) and the worst in red-zone touchdown rate (42.22%). Despite those horrendous numbers, the Patriots got a sniff of the playoffs. Imagine if they were just even a little bit more efficient offensively that season. They probably would have had at least 10 wins.

1 Don’t forget about their defense

While the Patriots were hard to watch on offense in 2022, their defense did a great job at making the team look competent at least on one side of the ball. New England won eight games last season thanks in large part to its stop unit that made big statements in a number of games. The Pats completely blanked the high-scoring Detroit Lions in Week 5 and had a late-season success against the Dolphins.

Overall, the Patriots ranked 11th in the NFL last season with 20.4 points allowed per game and ninth with only 322.0 total yards given up per outing. They were above average against the run, ranking seventh overall with only 105.5 rushing yards surrendered per contest. Their rushing DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) was ninth in the NFL and their passing DVOA was even better at No. 2.

New England's top three pass rushers in 2022 are all back. Those are Matthew Judon, who paced the team with 15.5 sacks, Josh Uche, who had 11.5 sacks, and Deatrich Wise Jr., who recorded a total of 7.5 sacks. As a team, the Patriots were the second-best in the NFL with a defensive sack rate of 8.31 percent. Even when adjusted, the Patriots were still among the best in 2022 in sack rate (8.5%).

The Patriots' secondary was not as shiny in 2022 as the team's pass rush, but with the arrival of cornerback Christian Gonzalez via the 2023 NFL Draft, New England's defense downfield suddenly got a whole lot more interesting.