Following the recent Champions League draw, the stats men at Opta have used a Power Ranking system to analyse every team in this year's competition and their chances of progressing through to each round, and eventually, the final. From teams who are unlikely to make it out of the group, to the likely winners, how will each team fare?

The 0% club

First of all, we have the select group of teams whose chances of even reaching the final have been deemed by Opta Analyst as statistically impossible. This unlucky few includes the winners of the Danish Superliga, Serbian Superliga, and the Ukrainian Premier League respectively, FC Kobenhavn, Crvena Zvezda, and Shakhtar Donetsk.

Could make the final

Next up we have the teams that will not win the competition, but could scrape into the final, and there are a couple of surprise inclusions.

First up is Celtic, who haven’t made it out of the group stage since 2013. Next up we have Sevilla, who having just won the Europa League last season could be considered a surprise inclusion.

Moving on we have Antwerp, who despite initially finishing third in the Belgian Pro League after 34 games, went on to win the title and earn Champions League qualification through the league's unique Championship round (similar to the play-offs).

Finally, out of the teams who are considered by Opta to have zero chance of winning the competition we have Galatasaray and Sporting Braga, who have both been given a 0.3% chance of making the final. However, this could be considered slightly harsh on the Turkish side who have made some shrewd signings over the summer, including Hakim Ziyech, Mauro Icardi, and Wilfried Zaha.

Below 1%

The teams included in the next group are the ones that have been deemed to have an extremely slim chance of winning the Champions League, less the 1% to be precise.

First up on 0.3% we have Lazio, Lens, Real Sociedad, and FC Union Berlin. Lazio and Lens both finished second in their respective leagues, while Real Sociedad and FC Union Berlin both finished in fourth place. However, with this being FC Union Berlin’s maiden Champions League quest, we wouldn’t put it past them to shock a few spectators.

Moving on we have Feyenoord and RB Salzburg, who have been given a 0.5% and 0.6% chance of winning the competition respectively having both comfortably won their domestic leagues in 22/23.

Below 3%

Included in the next batch of teams we have the clubs with less than a three percent chance of winning the competition.

First up is arguably the biggest surprise on this list PSG. Having reached the final in 19/20 and the semi-final in 20/21, PSG have been given a 1.1% of winning the competition, the same as PSV. Admittedly the French super club have struggled in more recent years and having lost Champions League royalty in the form of Neymar and Lionel Messi, the team could lack some of the all-important UCL experience necessary to make it through to the latter stages.

Then we have three European sleeping giants in AC Milan, Benfica, and Borussia Dortmund. Having all previously won the UCL/European Cup, these clubs have all been given similar chances of winning the competition at 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6 respectively. This being said, the last team of the three to reach a final was Dortmund in 2013, so we are long overdue one of these giants awaking from their slumber.

Making up the last of the teams given below a 3% chance of winning the competition is Newcastle United. Following a fourth place Premier League finish last season, the Magpies have been given a respectable 2.7% chance of victory. However, having last played in the competition in 02/03 under Sir Bobby Robson, these odds could be considered slightly generous.

Below 5%

Next up we have a group of teams considered to have less than a 5% chance of winning the Champions League, and there are some big hitters in RB Leipzig, Barcelona, FC Porto, Atletico Madrid, and Manchester United. With the exceptions of Atletico Madrid, who reached the final in 15/16, and RB Leipzig, who were only founded in 2009, the rest of the clubs have won the competition this century.

RB Leipzig, Barcelona, and Porto all hover around the 3% chance of winning the trophy, whereas, somewhat surprisingly, Manchester United are given a 4.4% chance despite not making it past the quarter-final stage since 10/11.

In with a chance

Now we move on to real big hitters, the teams considered to be the favourites for the competition.

First up we have an Italian duo, last year's Champions League finalists Inter Milan and last season's Serie A winners Napoli, who have been given 5.1% and 6% chances respectively. Inter Milan were last campaign's surprise package, defying the odds and the pundits to reach the final in Istanbul. Whereas, despite dominating every team in Serie A, Napoli failed to make it the past the quarter-final stage in Europe.

Next up we have the competition's greatest-ever team, 14-time winners Real Madrid, who have been given a 6.6% chance of winning the UCL, and Arsenal, who have a 7% chance of going all the way. Fourth place may come as a surprise to some Madrid fans, but having lost Karim Benzema, Madrid are now without a recognised world-class striker. This being said, Real Madrid always seem to pull it out of the bag in the Champions League, so we wouldn’t bet against them too soon.

Perhaps the greatest surprise is that Arsenal, a team that has not qualified for the Champions League since 16/17 and not reached the final since 05/06, are ahead of them. But who are we to argue with the stats men…

Next year's finalists?

Finally, we have the two teams considered by Opta to be the most likely winners of the 23/24 Champions League.

First up is six-time winners Bayern Munich, who are considered to have 10.2% likelihood of going all the way. Bayern last won the competition in 19/20 after beating PSG in the final, though, they have not progressed past the quarter-finals since. However, with previous winner Thomas Tuchel at the helm, the German champions are certainly in with a shout.

And rounding off the list at top spot we have last year's winners Manchester City. Having been desperate to win their inaugural UCL trophy, City reached the final in 20/21 but lost 1-0 to Chelsea. After once again failing to go all in the way in 21/22, City bolstered their squad with elite goalscorer Erling Haaland and finally got their hands on the illusive Champions League trophy last campaign after beating Inter Milan 1-0 in the final.

Following this, the Citizens have been given a 36.1% likelihood of winning the trophy back-to-back and a whopping 50.3% chance of at least reaching the final. We know who our money’s on… Do you agree with these rankings? If not, what would you change?